Albuquerque Leads in Madeira Polls: A Tight Race for Second Place Between PS and JPP

Summary:

PSD-Madeira leads with 38% in the latest poll for regional elections.
No absolute majority is expected for PSD-M according to the Aximage study.
PS-Madeira and JPP are in a tight race for second place, with 20.9% and 19.7% respectively.
Coalition dynamics suggest Chega could play a crucial role in the next government.
The poll conducted from March 7 to 17 involved 561 interviews with a 4.1% margin of error.

Albuquerque's Strong Position

The PSD-Madeira led by Miguel Albuquerque is the clear favorite for victory in the upcoming regional elections on Sunday. According to a recent Aximage poll for DN Madeira and TSF Madeira, 38% of voters support PSD-M, which also includes 12.5% of undecided voters. This represents an increase from the 36% achieved in last year's regional elections.

No Absolute Majority in Sight

While a previous Intercampus poll suggested a potential absolute majority for PSD-M, the Aximage study indicates that this is unlikely.

Battle for Second Place

The competition for the second position is heating up, with PS-Madeira led by Paulo Cafôfo garnering 20.9% of votes, closely followed by JPP led by Élvio Sousa at 19.7%.

Other Parties' Standings

Following them are Chega at 8.2% and CDS-PP at 2.6%. The Aximage data suggests that Iniciativa Liberal and PAN may lose their current representation in the Madeira Legislative Assembly, while Bloco de Esquerda and CDU remain outside the regional parliament.

Coalition Dynamics

A coalition between PSD and CDS could secure 40.6% of the votes, which is equal to a potential alliance between PS and JPP, yet still falls short of the absolute majority needed for 24 deputies. The four regional deputies that Chega could elect may play a crucial role in determining the governing coalition. While Chega has ruled out any alliance with Albuquerque, it is open to agreements with PSD-M if Albuquerque is not involved.