Summary:
Henrique Gouveia e Melo is the leading candidate with 37% support.
Luís Marques Mendes follows in second with 19%.
André Ventura has 9% support but is uncertain about his candidacy.
Leftist candidates show irrelevant support, with Raimundo at just 2%.
Gouveia e Melo has a 62% acceptance rate, while Raimundo faces 85% rejection.
As the presidential elections approach in nearly ten months, Henrique Gouveia e Melo, a retired admiral, emerges as the preferred candidate for nearly four out of ten voters (37%) according to a recent Cesop poll conducted for PÚBLICO, RTP, and Antena 1. This study highlights that leftist candidates currently hold almost irrelevant support.
Second Choice: Luís Marques Mendes
In second place, with a significant gap, is Luís Marques Mendes, former president of PSD, favored by 19% of respondents. Mendes has officially launched his candidacy and has been publicly challenging Gouveia e Melo, who, while not having formally declared his candidacy, has been active in the media with articles, conference appearances, and interviews.
André Ventura's Uncertain Position
The third favorite, receiving 9% of the votes, is André Ventura, president of Chega. He recently canceled his formal candidacy announcement and is focusing on legislative campaigns, deferring his presidential aspirations until after the May elections. Ventura has hinted at supporting Gouveia e Melo, although the latter has declined party endorsements.
Leftist Candidates Struggling
The left-wing candidates, including António José Seguro and António Vitorino, are tied, each garnering 7% support. Other leftist figures like Catarina Martins (4%) and Mariana Leitão (3%) are also trailing. Paulo Raimundo, the communist secretary-general, is at the bottom with just 2%.
Acceptance and Rejection Rates
Gouveia e Melo enjoys a 62% acceptance rate, while Paulo Raimundo faces the highest rejection at 85%. Other candidates like Ventura and Martins have rejection rates of 79% and 77% respectively. Interestingly, more than half of respondents reject the socialist candidates, with 64% unwilling to vote for Vitorino and 57% for Seguro.
Analysis of Voter Preferences
The data reveals a curious phenomenon: while many voters express willingness to consider Seguro and Vitorino, very few identify them as their top choice. This disparity suggests a disconnect between acceptance and preference, possibly due to their candidacies being in limbo. As the election approaches, the dynamics may shift significantly, especially if any leftist candidate formally enters the race.
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