Political Turmoil in Madeira: Chega's Rising Influence and Upcoming Elections

Political Crisis in Madeira

The ongoing political crises in Madeira are turning into an endless saga. With elections on the horizon, stability once again lies in the hands of Chega.

A historical PSD/Madeira member proclaimed, "We are all in Chega's hands," summarizing the political future of the Autonomous Region after the opposition approved a motion of censure against Miguel Albuquerque's government.

Preparing for New Elections

As the new political crisis unfolds, parties are gearing up for yet another electoral campaign. Many doubt that the results will differ from those of May. Both the PSD and PS are facing internal dissent, with some members advocating for leadership changes before the elections to resolve the political deadlock. Manuel António Correia, a social democrat, publicly urged the President of the Republic to allow time for internal reorganization before calling for elections. While criticisms within the PS are less vocal, dissatisfaction with Paulo Cafofo is evident.

Chega's Dilemma

As the Chega party continues to push its agenda against corruption and the Socialist Party, they face a crucial decision. After causing the regional government's collapse, Chega must choose whether to support a new government led by Albuquerque—who is facing allegations of corruption—or a leftist coalition government. "Chega will have to decide whether it stands with the right or the left," a regional deputy remarked.

Elections Before Carnival?

Both Miguel Albuquerque and Paulo Cafofo expressed their desire for elections to occur as soon as possible. The scheduling of discussions with Ireneu Barreto just two days post-censure vote has been interpreted as a sign of a swift process. Political leaders believe that Barreto's quick action aligns with Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who is now positioned to call parties without delay. They are aiming for elections before Carnival, on February 16 or 23, which would necessitate a decision from the President before the year's end.

Campaign Strategies

Albuquerque plans to campaign using the 2025 Regional Budget, which was rejected by the opposition, arguing that the lack of good news for Madeirans results from opposition actions. He also highlights recent positive economic data, including GDP growth and increased employment, as favorable news for the outgoing government. The campaign strategy focuses on "talking little about the PSD and much about governance results."

In a repeat of previous elections, Luís Montenegro is unlikely to join the campaign. The Prime Minister, who recently accused Chega and PS of collusion in Madeira, is expected to communicate with Albuquerque shortly.