Is H5N1 Avian Flu the Next Epidemic Threat for Portugal? Experts Weigh In

The Warning from Francisco George

Public Health expert Francisco George has raised alarms about the potential threat of the H5N1 avian flu virus, stating that Portugal must be prepared for new health challenges. In an interview with Lusa, he emphasized that the virus is currently circulating primarily among birds and cattle, including dairy cows.

Reflecting on COVID-19 Preparedness

Reflecting on the initial cases of SARS-CoV-2, which marked the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal on March 2, 2020, George noted that the country is now better equipped to handle emerging health threats. He stressed the importance of containing H5N1 within animal populations to prevent it from crossing species barriers, as happened with COVID-19.

Current Situation of H5N1 in Portugal

Recently, the Minister of Agriculture reported five domestic and four wild outbreaks of avian flu in Portugal. George pointed out the risks involved in poultry farms and livestock operations, where human contact could facilitate the spread of the virus. He reassured that so far, only sporadic cases linked to direct contact with infected animals have been recorded, and human-to-human transmission has not occurred.

The Need for Vigilance

George called for enhanced surveillance and immediate action should any human infections arise. He explained that while there is an ongoing epizootic (an outbreak affecting a large number of animals), it has not yet translated into human health issues.

Understanding Infection Clusters

Epidemiologists distinguish between clusters of infections, which occur among individuals connected in time and space, and full-blown epidemics characterized by sustained human-to-human transmission. The latter is classified as a pandemic.

The History of H5N1

The first outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza was reported in Hong Kong in 1997, controlled through the culling of 1.5 million domestic birds. Since 2003, the virus has impacted over 60 mammal species, including dogs, cats, and pigs, and has been transmitted by wild birds to seals in South America and minks in Europe.

Recent Developments

Between October 2024 and January this year, over 840 outbreaks of the disease were identified in Europe, particularly in Hungary and Italy. While human transmission is rare, it can lead to severe illness, raising concerns among WHO experts about the potential mutation of H5N1 that could enhance its spread.

Global Context

Last year, 81 human infections were reported, the highest since 2015. In the early weeks of this year, two deaths related to avian flu were confirmed, one in the United States and another in Cambodia.